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Policymakers must take action to make the European Union climate-neutral by 2050. But how can we achieve a climate-neutral energy system in Europe which is sustainable, secure, affordable, and socially acceptable? Here, Diana Süsser explores how energy modelling can enable informed decision-making for the energy transition.

The European Green Deal lays the foundation for transforming the EU economy. The European Climate Target Plan sets the EU’s targets and states that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 55 % by 2030. The goal is to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, implying that Europe’s energy system must be completely decarbonized.

Energy models can be used to explore decarbonization pathways and test outcomes of interlinked choices about the design of our future energy systems. Such energy models are developed and used in various scientific studies and applied at the European, national, and local levels. Many of these studies aim to support policy decisions that shape our energy future.

How can energy modelling become more relevant for policymaking?

Many energy models are becoming more intertwined with the policymaking process. In a study we conducted in the EU-funded project Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL), we found that models can help explore policy options and set ambitious targets. However, they can also be instrumentalized to justify measures and targets already being decided.

We took this finding as a starting point to organize a session at the Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (EMP-E 2021) on how models can become more relevant for policymaking. Together with Andreas Zucker (DG ENER), Jörg Mühlenhoff (CAN Europe), Alessia De Vita (E3-Modelling), and Olivier Lebois (ENTSO-E), we discussed how models are used in policymaking and what promotes or hinders their use. I took away three important insights from this session:

1. Energy models can be helpful for policymakers in exploring possible energy pathways. There is a need for “practical” models that can test the outcomes of concrete decisions and policy instruments. These models need to provide information for different geographical and temporal scales. As such, a set of small, transparent, open-source models and data are needed that can work together to address specific transition challenges. This is what we aim to do in the SENTINEL project. We are developing a new and modular modelling framework consisting of many separate but linked models to help support policy decisions for an emission-free, renewable energy-based energy system.
   
2. Model transparency is essential to make models relevant for policymakers. Policymakers must be able to understand the model and its limitations if the model is to inform decision-making. Furthermore, open models arguably garner greater trust and credibility. Therefore, modellers should make the model assumptions, data, and resulting knowledge as open and accessible as possible.
   
3. Different stakeholders, from policymakers to energy industry representatives and NGOs, should be involved in the modelling process. Extending and improving knowledge sharing to a wider societal audience leads to the inclusion of important needs, research questions, context-specific challenges, and concrete insights from practitioners. However, capacity building for energy modelling may be needed for certain stakeholders, such as environmental NGOs, to ensure that they can participate in the debate. Joint development of models and collective interpretation of modelling results increases the chances that policymakers will use research findings.

Where should energy models improve?

Energy models have evolved and improved rapidly. However, there are still many challenges for modelling. Plus, new challenges are emerging given the ever-changing technical, social, and political circumstances. But where should we start to improve the models? Depending on who you ask, the answer to this question may vary. If your goal is to support and inform decision-making through energy modelling, it is crucial to take the needs and perspectives of decision-makers into account.

That’s why we involve different stakeholders in the modelling process of the SENTINEL project. Modellers and stakeholders work together to identify research questions, information gaps, and context-specific challenges of the energy transition. Our results show that the interests of decision-makers go beyond technical and economic questions of the energy transition. Various environmental, social, and political aspects of the energy transition are important from a decision-maker’s point of view, including:

• Environmental and resource impacts of the energy transition
• The impacts of consumer behavior and lifestyles
• The effects of policy options and changes

Consequently, modellers should focus their attention more on the social, political and urgent ecological aspects of the energy transition, which are currently often underrepresented in models. Models that consider all relevant aspects of the energy system can significantly improve their policy relevance for a sustainability-oriented and socially supported energy system transformation.

Submit your research to the Energy Systems Modelling Collection

If you want to support open science, explore the new Energy Systems Modelling Collection, running concurrently on F1000Research and Open Research Europe. I published my recent article on Open Research Europe and really liked the fact that immediate publication is possible with a transparent peer review process and an emphasis on open data. The whole publication and review process was fast and transparent. I believe these platforms are a great outlet for the open research community.

Have research to share on energy modelling? Submit your research to the Energy Systems Modelling Collection or learn more about how the open publishing model works today.