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In response to the widespread outbreak of the Zika virus in Brazil, some health experts published an open letter in May, calling for the upcoming Olympics to be postponed or moved. Although the World Health Organization released a statement that the risk of Zika spreading by the Olympics would be low, some athletes have dropped out. A few teams have developed technology to provide additional measure of prevention, such as South Korea’s mosquito-repellent suits, while visitors are planning to take extra precautions. But is this panic justified? We spoke with Nathan Grubaugh and Kristian Andersen, who work in the Department of Immunology and Microbial Science at The Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, and who today published an opinion article on F1000Research on how to navigate the Zika panic.

Nathan Grubaugh

Why did you decide to write a paper on this now?

We decided to write this paper in the wake of several media reports and articles being published on the premises of fear-mongering and not scientific evidence. When you really examine what is known about Zika virus, and related viruses like dengue, you can see that the current Zika virus epidemic is a major concern, but the Olympics play a negligible role.

How many visitors will become infected with Zika virus during the Olympics?

About ½ million people from all over the world will travel to Brazil for the Olympics, but only very few visitors are expected to get infected with Zika virus. Based on previous outbreaks with similar viruses overlapping major sporting events, researchers have calculated that only between 5 to 80 people traveling to Brazil for the Olympics will get infected with Zika. Compared to the overall number of infections, this is astonishingly low.

Are there any preventative measures being taken by the authorities in Rio?

The best preventative measure for Zika virus is mosquito control, and thankfully, nature is doing a bit of that for us. It is winter in Brazil when the Games will take place, so mosquito abundance is already decreasing. On top of that, authorities in Rio are using insecticides to further reduce mosquito numbers.

How can visitors protect themselves?

First, anyone traveling to a country with an ongoing Zika epidemic – including to Brazil for the Olympics – should follow relevant guidelines from health agencies such as the WHO and CDC. The current guidelines suggest that women who are pregnant or planning to get pregnant in the near-term should avoid travel to areas with Zika epidemics. Second, since Zika virus may also be sexually transmitted, safe sex should be practiced during the Games and when traveling home. Third, Zika virus is primarily transmitted by mosquitoes, so the best way to protect oneself is by avoiding mosquito bites: minimize time outdoors at dawn and dusk during peak mosquito activity, dress in long sleeves and pants, wear mosquito repellent that contains DEET, and avoid areas with standing stagnant water that may be mosquito breeding sites.

Kristian Andersen

Will the Olympics enhance the further spread of Zika virus?

It is highly unlikely that the Olympics will play a significant role in the further spread of Zika virus. This is mainly due to: (1) likely only very few visitors will get infected in Brazil, and (2) even if people were to be infected, it’s unlikely that they will pass the virus on to susceptible mosquito populations in their home country. In addition, the travel to and from Brazil for the Games is only a small fraction of the total travel that will already occur to and from Zika endemic countries.

Why shouldn’t we panic about Zika?

The correlations between Zika virus and severe neuropathologies, such as microcephaly in newborns, is a real concern. So is yet another virus emerging into a new area and sparking a major epidemic. Therefore, much of the fear associated with Zika virus is real, but there is also a large amount based on over-speculation. For example, people have stated that the Zika strain in the Americas is more severe than the strains elsewhere, and this statement is now being passed around as fact. There is no current data, however, to support the claim that the American Zika virus strains are unique in their potential to cause severe disease. What is seemingly special about the Zika epidemic in the Americas is that it is very large, allowing for rare pathologies that are starting to become apparent. New and important data about Zika virus is pouring in every day, which is constantly helping to create a clearer view of the epidemic.

What’s the take home message?

The Olympics are not a likely conduit to facilitate new Zika virus epidemics because there are not many people likely to become infected. When dealing with Zika, it is important that we base our decisions on previous experience with other viruses and new Zika research, to better understand the real risks and consequences of Zika virus infection. It is important that we do not let speculations and perceived risk drive the conversation in the wrong direction. The Zika virus epidemic is a serious public health emergency, and it is critical that we find viable intervention methods to stop spread and treat disease – the only way to do that, is to make decisions and recommendations based on evidence and scientific consensus.

For more information, please visit our Zika & Arbovirus Outbreaks channel. All articles published in this channel will have their Article Processing Charges (APCs) waived. Zika articles will also be given priority and can be published within days of submission. See our blog for more details and the accompanying list of Zika related articles recommended by the F1000 Faculty, which is composed of over 10,000 world-leading scientists and clinicians.